Along the past week, I asked in diverses forums about the question of scenario (you can check out my past posts about it here and here) but now, with concrete questions and trying to link it with the citizenship's collaborative role (as part of early warning systems). Here is the answers:
"I will address your questions one
after the other in a new order.
Is it true that scenarios are based
in imagination?
Scenario planning also implies
scenario thinking or scenario analysis - so it can be implied that this is
based on deep and critical thinking and imagination.
How does it work?
Well, this is how it works:
It begins with defining the
objectives and scope of the pandemic
This is closely followed by defining
the key drivers of the pandemic
This will be followed by the
collation and analysis of relevant data. Such data include quantitative,
qualitative and expert opinion, access the predictability and the impact of the
key drivers and defining appropriate measures associated with the key drivers
Another stage involves developing
scenario
Applying scenario
and finally refining scenario
through updates
How is scenarios defined by
bio-experts?
Well, scenarios are defined by
bio-experts by carefully analysing the different biological parameters and key
drivers that will be associated in predicting a pandemic.
What are the root of this concept in
biosecurity and biosurveillance projects?
The significance of this
concept(scenario analysis) in biosecurity and biosurveillance related project
cannot be underestimated. It provides a predictive platform for scientists to
know and understand ahead the major and minor impact a pandemic will have on a
community or a society.
It also helps scientists to
incorporate essential bio-security measures to curb the negative impact of such
pandemic.
I hope I have provided some answers
to your questions."
"Scenarios
are meant to project potential impacts (primary, secondary...) of potential
threats/hazards at macro and micro (local) levels- e.g. impacts to
families/communities/vulnerable people. To which practical response measures
are formulated and serve as the basis for preparedness efforts (things that we
have to organize today during normal times so that we can indeed effectively
respond if called for). Thus, scenario-based planning can be used to test
existing set of plans or to inform first stage planning. In this regard, while
fiction and imagination will be applied, it must be out of experiences and good
educated foresight and appreciating possibilities."
"Scenario planning as a
part of pandemic preparedness can be quite diverse, and much dependent upon who
is involved, whether the scenario involves national or international
cooperation, and what the ultimate goals are in terms of protecting national
biosecurity, global spread, mitigation, etc. Clearly scenario planning must
involve some imagination since it is an event that has not yet happened; but it
should be greatly informed by earlier situations that have occurred that may be
similar. A good example is that new pandemic influenza strategies
incorporate lessons learned from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, for which there is
much recent data and analysis. One thing that is rapidly changing the
social aspects of potential pandemic emergence is the widespread use of social
media, electronic communication, etc. These things have changed radically
even in the last 5 years since the H1N1 pandemic. Social media can be
very useful if properly used to communicate information and prevention and/or
mitigation measures. However, the ability of the public to discriminate
between good information and erroneous information is very limited, and thus
social media's widespread indiscriminate use can pose great threats to getting
accurate information out and coordinating responses. For these reasons,
social media must be a major part of today's scenario planning, and should be
coordinated with adequate filters at all levels, from international
partnerships to local community-based strategies."
To sum up all these proposals, we can say, about scenario-planning:
- The imaginational factor exists in scenario-planning, but also it's used information about past events (and this include traditional risk-management and statistics).
- Scenario-plannning is not used only in order to prepare against a threat, but also to know how is workin at present actions that are carrying out.
- The exchange in scales exists, that is to say, scenario-planning not only seeks to prepare or isolate a concrete or local outbreak, but also encompasses large-scale and total scales.
- The role of citizenship/population is important in order to manage affects, behaviors and (I guess) to enrole the as an active early warning system by including some equipment (in the Foucault sense). In few weeks, I will write a post about it because is the goal of a next paper.
- Scenario-planning is a source of information about a cocnrete situation. We need to "experience" the terror and the emergencie, not only imagine it or calculate it.
Photo Credit: Flickr, user Angus Mcdiarmid
"In our practice, these scenario-driven exercises are primarily focused on finding out the strengths and weaknesses of both your team (manpower levels, training updates, etc.) and your infrastructure, equipment and supply chain (is the inventory current?, is the equipment working?, are the facilities available in an emergency?, etc). From these initial questions you can draft a simple, yet relevant scenario to test both an unforeseen outbreak as well as your current surveillance capabilities. Then you can start adding challenges to this. Realistic scenarios will start with "a day in the life" of your particular team in your facility, then something 'goes wrong' or "someone notices something out of the ordinary in his/her routine, but didn't make much of it..." that's how situations evolve from bad to worse to crises. Hope this helps."