lunes, 9 de febrero de 2015

New theoretical answers about scenario-planning

Along the past week, I asked in diverses forums about the question of scenario (you can check out my past posts about it here and here) but now, with concrete questions and trying to link it with the citizenship's collaborative role (as part of early warning systems). Here is the answers:


"In our practice, these scenario-driven exercises are primarily focused on finding out the strengths and weaknesses of both your team (manpower levels, training updates, etc.) and your infrastructure, equipment and supply chain (is the inventory current?, is the equipment working?, are the facilities available in an emergency?, etc). From these initial questions you can draft a simple, yet relevant scenario to test both an unforeseen outbreak as well as your current surveillance capabilities. Then you can start adding challenges to this. Realistic scenarios will start with "a day in the life" of your particular team in your facility, then something 'goes wrong' or "someone notices something out of the ordinary in his/her routine, but didn't make much of it..." that's how situations evolve from bad to worse to crises. Hope this helps."
 

Another and full answer; very insteresing and gathered in ResearchGate, say:

"I will address your questions one after the other in a new order.
Is it true that scenarios are based in imagination?
Scenario planning also implies scenario thinking or scenario analysis - so it can be implied that this is based on deep and critical thinking and imagination.
How does it work?
Well, this is how it works:
It begins with defining the objectives and scope of the pandemic
This is closely followed by defining the key drivers of the pandemic
This will be followed by the collation and analysis of relevant data. Such data include quantitative, qualitative and expert opinion, access the predictability and the impact of the key drivers and defining appropriate measures associated with the key drivers
Another stage involves developing scenario
Applying scenario
and finally refining scenario through updates
How is scenarios defined  by bio-experts?
Well, scenarios are defined by bio-experts by carefully analysing the different biological parameters and key drivers  that will be associated in predicting a pandemic.
What are the root of this concept in biosecurity and biosurveillance projects?
The significance of this concept(scenario analysis) in biosecurity and biosurveillance related project cannot be underestimated. It provides a predictive platform for scientists to know and understand ahead the major and minor impact a pandemic will have on a community or a society. 
It also helps scientists to incorporate essential bio-security measures to curb the negative impact of such pandemic.
I hope I have provided some answers to your questions."

A third expert tell us, in this sense:

"Scenarios are meant to project potential impacts (primary, secondary...) of potential threats/hazards at macro and micro (local) levels- e.g. impacts to families/communities/vulnerable people. To which practical response measures are formulated and serve as the basis for preparedness efforts (things that we have to organize today during normal times so that we can indeed effectively respond if called for). Thus, scenario-based planning can be used to test existing set of plans or to inform first stage planning. In this regard, while fiction and imagination will be applied, it must be out of experiences and good educated foresight and appreciating possibilities."

 Finally, an answer quite close to our goals:

"Scenario planning as a part of pandemic preparedness can be quite diverse, and much dependent upon who is involved, whether the scenario involves national or international cooperation, and what the ultimate goals are in terms of protecting national biosecurity, global spread, mitigation, etc.  Clearly scenario planning must involve some imagination since it is an event that has not yet happened; but it should be greatly informed by earlier situations that have occurred that may be similar.  A good example is that new pandemic influenza strategies incorporate lessons learned from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, for which there is much recent data and analysis.  One thing that is rapidly changing the social aspects of potential pandemic emergence is the widespread use of social media, electronic communication, etc.  These things have changed radically even in the last 5 years since the H1N1 pandemic.  Social media can be very useful if properly used to communicate information and prevention and/or mitigation measures.  However, the ability of the public to discriminate between good information and erroneous information is very limited, and thus social media's widespread indiscriminate use can pose great threats to getting accurate information out and coordinating responses. For these reasons, social media must be a major part of today's scenario planning, and should be coordinated with adequate filters at all levels, from international partnerships to local community-based strategies."

To sum up all these proposals, we can say, about scenario-planning:

  • The imaginational factor exists in scenario-planning, but also it's used information about past events (and this include traditional risk-management and statistics).
  • Scenario-plannning is not used only in order to prepare against a threat, but also to know how is workin at present actions that are carrying out.
  • The exchange in scales exists, that is to say, scenario-planning not only seeks to prepare or isolate a concrete or local outbreak, but also encompasses large-scale and total scales.
  • The role of citizenship/population is important in order to manage affects, behaviors and (I guess) to enrole the as an active early warning system by including some equipment (in the Foucault sense). In few weeks, I will write a post about it because is the goal of a next paper.
  • Scenario-planning is a source of information about a cocnrete situation. We need to "experience" the terror and the emergencie, not only imagine it or calculate it.
Photo Credit: Flickr, user Angus Mcdiarmid



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